Hey Everyone,
This week I have been thinking about beliefs--why and how do people believe what they believe. Which is to say why and how do we believe what we believe.
And incentives. How they drive us and our beliefs.
[[ Beliefs ]]
Let’s explore beliefs through these three readings that have some overlap but also provide different perspectives.
Crony Beliefs
Kevin Simler | 23 mins
Why do people (including us) believe in seemingly absurd things (astrology, conspiracy theories, etc)?
In this intriguing essay, Kevin contends it's because there is a class of beliefs that reward us not necessarily by being true but by rewarding us socially. This is the concept of Merit vs Crony Beliefs.
Merit Beliefs are those that have pragmatic value. They allow us to model the world correctly.
Crony Beliefs are those that have social value. They reward us socially. E.g. By helping us posture (blend in, stick out, show off, etc).
Our brain has evolved to adopt both kinds of beliefs because we need them to ensure our bottom-line: survival and reproduction. Merit beliefs help us navigate the world. Crony beliefs help us navigate our social setup.
Aside: Crony Beliefs aren't necessarily wrong. They can lie anywhere on the truth spectrum. What makes them crony is in how they reward us; their truth is (almost) irrelevant.
Now, how can we identify whether a belief is Merit or Crony? The most effective way to check is to see how emotionally attached we are to the beliefs. And whether we try to protect them from criticism and scrutiny or welcome it.
Do You Really Believe What You Believe?
Lawrence Yeo | 13 mins
This well-constructed essay also tackles a similar question as above: of determining how and if people actually believe what they believe.
Summary:
We can check whether we really believe something by observing our actions, questioning our words, and introspecting on our thoughts. In the case of other people we can only do the first two (i.e do external checks). That is why it is tricky. Furthermore, people may have a belief in belief--believing they should believe something despite realizing its falsity.
For ourselves, we have access to all three components that form the belief triangle. We should exercise that ability to align our beliefs with how we want to live this one life.
Making Beliefs Pay Rent
Eliezer Yudkowsky | 4 mins
This third read may be seen as a way to detect and verify Merit Beliefs. Or as a way to introspect on our beliefs.
Summary:
Beliefs should be tied to anticipatory experience either directly or through some network of beliefs. That is to say: it should predict what you expect to happen to you and what you don't. If it doesn't do that, if it allows for anything to happen then is it a belief worth having? Is it even a belief?
My Thoughts
I know next to nothing about epistemology. So can't place these readings among other related theories. However, these do provide a good jumping off point for checking our own beliefs.
Personally, I haven't done an extensive audit of my beliefs. When trying to I could only conjure up obvious things like: "Gravity works". Haha. I realized I haven't thought extensively about my beliefs around the more nuanced topics and areas. Anyway, I believe I can at least get started now.
[[ Incentives ]]
Crony Beliefs come about because we have social incentives to hold them. This got me thinking about something I have been coming across a lot recently (or perhaps: my mind has been paying attention to): incentives.
Incentives are more pervasive than we think.
See: The Power of Incentives: The Hidden Forces That Shape Behavior
For instance, here is Charlie Munger giving an example from FedEx:
The heart and soul of the integrity of the system is that all the packages have to be shifted rapidly in one central location each night. And the system has no integrity if the whole shift can’t be done fast. And Federal Express had one hell of a time getting the thing to work.
And they tried moral suasion, they tried everything in the world, and finally somebody got the happy thought that they were paying the night shift by the hour, and that maybe if they paid them by the shift, the system would work better. And lo and behold, that solution worked.
The recent decision to offer bounty on catching Locusts swarming devastatingly into Nepal also got me thinking about this. It sounded like a build up to a Cobra Effect situation. Of course, it probably won't materialize that way. People probably won't start farming locusts. Hopefully.
However, more than these conspicuous incentive structures, I am now interested in ones that may be "hidden" or "hidden in plain sight". A lot of our institutions have them: some explicit, some implicit, most in between. For instance, schools incentivize getting good grades over pretty much everything else. For students, parents, and teachers alike. How does that affect our learning? See: The Lesson To Unlearn.
Social incentives are perhaps even more widespread, existing undetected.
For instance, why do we have such a high recency bias for things like TV Series? Instead, why don't we try to seek out the best shows ever?
:o
This seems obvious in retrospect. But does provide a new lens to look at things. I only watched the last season of Game-Of-Thrones. Yup, just the last. (I read the summaries for the previous seasons). Now that I think about it: I did that because I wanted to be in on the conversation. To talk about it. Even, how they totally botched it! (Not that I could tell). I was operating under an incentive.
Of course, this isn't the only thing people are motivated by when watching/choosing to watch a series. They most likely do care about the quality. And of course, the shows can be both popular and great. But it is easy to underestimate the social incentive involved in the choices. I mean: people are delighted when they get to discuss it with others!
"That character is so rad!"
"Totally!".
And even when people actively look for hidden gems and eschew all that are popular I suspect they still secretly want some people they can discuss those with.
Now, this is not to say those incentives are bad. They can work both ways. This is just to say they are there, if we only look for and notice them.
(Related: Why fantasy football is so hellaciously pervasive right now
Social media is best when everyone is talking about the same thing. It's an incentive. But people want to talk about themselves. Fantasy football hits the right spot at the intersection of those things).
// Videos
What I've Learned | 7 mins
Interesting note on one factor as to why Japan has one of the lowest obesity rates in the world. Namely: how the food environment there makes it easy to eat healthy. Related: Our Environments Shape us.
// Interesting
Candyland and the Nature of the Absurd
Some big thoughts lightly (and nicely) presented.
// Might-be-Useful
Hemingway App
I don't use this all the time, for every writing. But when I do, it does help me find ways to improve the writing. :)
Free Amazing Stock Photos
Pexels and Unsplash are my usual go-to sites if I need some stock photos.
// Stories and Poems
The Rememberer
exurb1a | 28 mins
Absolutely brilliant and beautiful. Equal parts poetry, storytelling, and a cinematic experience. (Thanks to Nish for sharing this).
If You Should Go
Countee Cullen | 1 min
Love, leave me like the light,
The gently passing day;
We would not know, but for the night,
When it has slipped away.So many hopes have fled,
Have left me but the name
Of what they were. When love is dead,
Go thou, beloved, the same.Go quietly; a dream
When done, should leave no trace
That it has lived, except a gleam
Across the dreamer’s face.
// Music
One of the most beautiful performances I have listened live. Awesome cover of this lovely Cohen song.
Tom Lehrer. Oh how I love his wicked and wickedly good songs. Full of merry dark humor. Recommend checking out his other songs too.
// Wholesome
That’s it for this week!
Do reply with your thoughts on any of these. Will be delighted to receive them :)
(Oh and a housekeeping item: if you are getting these in your promotions tab, consider dragging it into the main tab and keeping that as the preference).
With Love,
Bijay
(P.S: If you know anyone who might enjoy these letters, do share it with them!).
Crony beliefs, Merit Beliefs were totally new for me. Thank you for sharing this. The analogy of our beliefs as employees hired by our brain, throughout the essay was helpful to grasp somehow the very notion. But still, my mind has room for its conflicts though.
It's true that our community is not a textbook and heavily outrun by crony beliefs, where the beauty of less wrong prevails. We don't know when these crony beliefs of us were able to outgrow our epistemic merit roots. Maybe because of human nature for getting easy fruits. Don't know. And roots are the problem here.
And taking measures such as arranging some peers or building mini-ecosystem or institutions who solely judge as per the/their merit beliefs, to hit those roots sounds functional. Possible to grow on a macro scale but a difficult thing to achieve. Unless everybody gets similar education of holding pragmatic beliefs. Which is going to take a whole lot of time even if we are in a linear path holding our beliefs. Not impossible.
The further reading recommendation in the same essay: Robin Hanson, Are Beliefs Like Clothes? Dealing with the same dual function of beliefs was also good.
And why it is easier to be thin in japan video was amusing.
One broken thought I had when thinking about "incentives" in general:
In a company, X recommendation is given higher priority in hiring people, which helps to provide a bonus to whoever is recommending. Does that mean the company eventually gets tangled with nepotism?
Anyway, thanks for this thought-provoking iteration.
Also for Cohen's song and the poem (found it moving...)